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Prediction for CME (2024-12-25T17:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-25T17:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35946/-1
CME Note: Slowly developing loop seen to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery during a STEREO A data gap. Characterized by a dimming (GOES SUVI 284) and destabilization near AR3934 (N15E02) with northeastward deflection, a surge in GOES SUVI 304, and change in magnetic field structure with rising structure in GOES SUVI 195/171. ~29/06:00Z-ish (pink line), 29/15:00Z (red line), and 29/22:00Z (green line). No clear arrival signature seen in the solar wind at L1, although there could be super minor potential magnetic obstacles seen around 2024-12-29T06:00Z, 2024-12-29T15:00Z and 2024-12-29T22:00Z, mainly indicated by minor drops in density.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-29T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35948/1
Model Inputs:
2024-12-25T17:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-11.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=325.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2024-12-26T03:15Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-29T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-01T20:00Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T12:00Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-29T22:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-31T12:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-29T16:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241226_031500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 95.83 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-25T20:10Z

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